What is striking, however, is that this negative balance is not due to a fall in any of the traditi

Broadcast at Euronews: Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank until October 2011 answers questions young Europeans to the crisis, its causes and ways out of it. The questions and answers are moving in a known, most clichéd pattern: if the Eurobond would be the solution if you need to protect the bankers, if austerity leads nowhere and that way according to Mr Trichet is, "as in a household to spend as much as winning. "
It is striking: we enter the fifth year of the crisis and yet it seems to have come up in Greece but also at European level to a clear conclusion about what caused the crisis and especially how to get out of it. Conservative analysts and economists insist that the causes lie in fiscal loosening auction direct victor ny and that austerity is the solution that will regain the confidence of panicky markets. The progressive camp, having rediscover Keynes insists on the "cyclical" movements, to drop money into the market to stimulate growth (creating the known cliché now, confrontation "austerity or growth"). Most hip insist that the problem lies in the imbalances of the euro. The most populists blame bankers and fund managers for "casino capitalism" for promiscuity and greed. In Greece a large amount of responsibility attributable to "lamogia" all sorts of cheats citizens and politicians. All or at least most agree that the problem is due to the sovereign debt of certain countries, is that the European and powerful Europe, if it acts collectively, may by two-or three financial institutions trick (eurobond, debt haircut, printing currency, federalism economic policy etc.) to untangle the crisis.
Almost all, however, seem to ignore the dramatic changes that have occurred in the global economy over the last decade. In January 2001 China entered as a member in the World Trade Organization, six years after its founding auction direct victor ny in 1995. This marked a sharp rise in the Chinese economy dragged across the Southeast auction direct victor ny Asia region and almost completely reversed the international financial auction direct victor ny balances. European businesses and their employees, having enjoyed a decade of unprecedented economic boom and prosperity, suddenly found under the unbearable pressure of new competitors in the global chessboard of international trade. The 2008 financial crisis started in America, was in fact the occasion to reveal how weak, unprepared and vulnerable auction direct victor ny were the most European economies towards new global economic reality.
The following diagram reflected the trade balance of the 27 Europe (source: auction direct victor ny Eurostat, treated with GNU Octave). The first observation one makes is that after 2002, when the EU was a balance in the trade balance (black line), followed by a rapid decline until the financial crisis of 2008, after which there was a short halt, to arrive today in negative of about 160 billion. This means that in the area of trade, the EU in 2011 was 160 billion auction direct victor ny outflow towards its trading partners. auction direct victor ny
What is striking, however, is that this negative balance is not due to a fall in any of the traditional export sectors of Europe, namely chemical and heavy industry as one would expect, but a dramatic deterioration in the balance of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, etc., green line) from 2002 onwards. The EU currently pays more than three times the amount compared to 2002 to meet the needs of fuel. As shown in the chart below (source: OPEC), the increase in these costs is not due to increased consumption, but the increase in fuel prices. The price of oil in dollars super quadrupled in 10 years, an annual weighted average increase of 16%.
The dramatic rise in oil prices attributed to the sharp increase in demand caused by the emerging economies of Asia and South America. Its consequences were put under considerable pressure all European economies, which had to find ways to meet the ever growing deficit the balance, and dramatically increased the cost of living of their citizens. It is also characteristic auction direct victor ny that in times of recession, most economies still if exhibit strong inflationary trends. Note that the exact opposite was the result in supplier countries (eg Saudi Arabia, auction direct victor ny Qatar) who saw the growth in the same period to run even with double figures.
Greece and Portugal were the most unprepared eurozone auction direct victor ny countries to deal with the new economic & n